Review of The Future of Buildings, Transportation and Power
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Rob Carr
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Review of The Future of Buildings, Transportation and Power
[Following is a volunteer review of "The Future of Buildings, Transportation and Power" by Roger Duncan and Michael E. Webber.]
Roger Duncan and Michael E. Webber's The Future of Buildings, Transportation, and Power is a well researched, and well written book on where the current trends in our energy systems are leading us.
The book goes through in detail the mega trend of energy efficiency, how our buildings are becoming smarter, how the way we move around might change, the trend towards renewable electricity and storage, and what all of this might mean for our future.
Duncan and Webber do a good job of looking out to the future in a timeframe that is understandable to the reader. Rather than focusing on the theories of how technology might change in the distant future, they take a much more practical look at what the evidence is showing for change over the next 20-30 years.
The book is full of interesting real life examples of technology delivery occurring now. These examples help to ground the changes and trends they put forward as being credible. I feel like I am fairly well read in this area but some of the examples were new to me which was a pleasant surprise such as Modvion investigating building composite wood wind turbines.
The only point where I felt the book lets you down a bit is when it comes to the treatment of climate change. Duncan and Webber are far from climate science deniers and are advocating for a more rapid transition to a decarbonised energy system. However some of the language used in the book gives credence to the arguments of deniers. For example, they describe the goals to reduce emissions as being what "most scientists feel are necessary". This suggests scientific research on the need to address climate change is a subjective judgement rather than something based on evidence and that it is only a view held by the majority when it is a near universal finding by scientists in the field. They also at times say climate change "may" or "could" cause more extreme weather events or disruption when we know that to be a certainty. While they may have taken this approach to avoid criticism they had not considered all views on climate change, we are now past the point where false balance should be provided to climate science denial.
The next steps to decarbonise our economy are set out well in the book. However it focuses on an 80% asap approach rather than a 100% renewable energy approach. Focusing on what will achieve the most significant reductions first is very important. However if we ignore what we need to do in order to achieve the last 20% until after we have achieved the 80% we won't get there in time. This is because the last solutions will be the hardest to deliver and will involve long lead times (likely over a decade). This means work on the final steps to get us to 100% renewable need to start now in parallel with the immediate actions. I would have liked to see Duncan and Webber explore those slightly longer term options more.
The reliance on nuclear as a solution is also a mistake. There simply isn't the evidence to suggest it is going to be possible to produce nuclear energy safely at a price that can compete with renewables now that makes it sensible to add new plants.
I rate this book 5 out of 5 stars. While there are aspects of the book I don't agree with, it is a well written and well researched piece that I really enjoyed reading.
I would recommend this book to anyone interested in energy systems, infrastructure, or addressing the climate crisis.
******
The Future of Buildings, Transportation and Power
View: on Bookshelves | on Amazon
Roger Duncan and Michael E. Webber's The Future of Buildings, Transportation, and Power is a well researched, and well written book on where the current trends in our energy systems are leading us.
The book goes through in detail the mega trend of energy efficiency, how our buildings are becoming smarter, how the way we move around might change, the trend towards renewable electricity and storage, and what all of this might mean for our future.
Duncan and Webber do a good job of looking out to the future in a timeframe that is understandable to the reader. Rather than focusing on the theories of how technology might change in the distant future, they take a much more practical look at what the evidence is showing for change over the next 20-30 years.
The book is full of interesting real life examples of technology delivery occurring now. These examples help to ground the changes and trends they put forward as being credible. I feel like I am fairly well read in this area but some of the examples were new to me which was a pleasant surprise such as Modvion investigating building composite wood wind turbines.
The only point where I felt the book lets you down a bit is when it comes to the treatment of climate change. Duncan and Webber are far from climate science deniers and are advocating for a more rapid transition to a decarbonised energy system. However some of the language used in the book gives credence to the arguments of deniers. For example, they describe the goals to reduce emissions as being what "most scientists feel are necessary". This suggests scientific research on the need to address climate change is a subjective judgement rather than something based on evidence and that it is only a view held by the majority when it is a near universal finding by scientists in the field. They also at times say climate change "may" or "could" cause more extreme weather events or disruption when we know that to be a certainty. While they may have taken this approach to avoid criticism they had not considered all views on climate change, we are now past the point where false balance should be provided to climate science denial.
The next steps to decarbonise our economy are set out well in the book. However it focuses on an 80% asap approach rather than a 100% renewable energy approach. Focusing on what will achieve the most significant reductions first is very important. However if we ignore what we need to do in order to achieve the last 20% until after we have achieved the 80% we won't get there in time. This is because the last solutions will be the hardest to deliver and will involve long lead times (likely over a decade). This means work on the final steps to get us to 100% renewable need to start now in parallel with the immediate actions. I would have liked to see Duncan and Webber explore those slightly longer term options more.
The reliance on nuclear as a solution is also a mistake. There simply isn't the evidence to suggest it is going to be possible to produce nuclear energy safely at a price that can compete with renewables now that makes it sensible to add new plants.
I rate this book 5 out of 5 stars. While there are aspects of the book I don't agree with, it is a well written and well researched piece that I really enjoyed reading.
I would recommend this book to anyone interested in energy systems, infrastructure, or addressing the climate crisis.
******
The Future of Buildings, Transportation and Power
View: on Bookshelves | on Amazon
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